zeb/market flash (Issue 5 – April 2013)

zeb.market.flash provides an overview of the performance of the worldโ€™s largest banks (measured by market capitalisation). The relevant factors are briefly and concisely described, analysed and classified by our experts. For our analyses, we take a close look at relevant indicators for the valuation of the capital market, such as stock returns, as well as macroeconomic and bank-specific drivers. This issue (Q1 2013) deals with the low interest rate environment 2013.ย Whatโ€™s in it for you?

State of the banking industry

  • In Q1 2013, the upward trend of recent quarters continued as market capitalization reached highest value since 2010
  • Investors continue to favor commercial banks; gap between mature and growth markets narrows
  • CDS spreads of Western European banks again increased significantly in March 2013 due to the recent market turmoil in Cyprus

Key banking drivers

  • Interest rates remain at historic lows, but are not yet fully reflected in business margins
  • Banksโ€™ RoE forecasts predict increasing RoEs despite weak economic fundamentals

Special topic: Succeeding in a low interest rate environment

  • A detailed analysis shows that the current low interest rate level may reduce net interest income of banks by up to 14%, thus threatening banksโ€™ profitability
  • Only a differentiated and effective set of strategic initiatives will help banks to limit the losses occurring from low interest rates

Picture: Skyline Hong Kong

Feel free to contact us!

Dr. Dirk Hollรคnder / author BankingHub

Dr. Dirk Hollรคnder

Head of zeb.business school, Frankfurt

Volker Abel

Senior Manager zeb
Dr. Ekkehardt Bauer / author BankingHub

Dr. Ekkehardt Bauer

Senior Manager Office Mรผnster

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